A Group Shout on Climate Change
SEPT. 27, 2014
The marchers and mayors, the ministers and presidents,
have come and gone. So what is the verdict on Climate Week, the summit meeting
on global warming convened by the United Nations secretary general, Ban
Ki-moon, in New York?
The meeting was not intended to reach a global agreement
or to extract tangible commitments from individual nations to reduce the
greenhouse gases that are changing the world’s ecosystems and could well spin
out of control. Its purpose was to build momentum for a new global deal to be
completed in December 2015, in Paris.
In that respect, it clearly moved the ball forward, not
so much in the official speeches but on the streets and in the meeting rooms
where corporate leaders, investors, Silicon Valley entrepreneurs and state and
local officials pressed the case for stronger action.
It was important to put climate change back on the radar
screen of world leaders, whose last effort to strike a deal, in Copenhagen five
years ago, ended in acrimonious disaster. President Obama, for one, was as
eloquent as he has ever been on the subject: “For all the immediate challenges
that we gather to address this week — terrorism, instability, inequality,
disease — there’s one issue that will define the contours of this century more
dramatically than any other, and that is the urgent and growing threat of a
changing climate.”
But most of the positive energy at this gathering came
from people closer to the ground, like the 300,000 activists who marched last Sunday. They included mayors like
New York’s Michael Bloomberg and his successor, Bill de Blasio, who both spoke
of the critical role that cities can play in reducing emissions. They included
governors like California’s Jerry Brown, who is justly proud of his state’s
pathbreaking efforts to control automobile and power plant pollution. And they
included institutions like Bank of America, which said it would invest in
renewable energy, and companies like Kellogg and Nestle, which pledged to help
stem the destruction of tropical forests by changing the way they buy
commodities like soybeans and palm oil.
Underlying all these declarations was a palpable
conviction that tackling climate change could be an opportunity and not a
burden, that the way to approach the task of harnessing greenhouse gas
emissions was not to ask how much it would cost but how much nations stood to
gain by investing in new technologies and energy efficiency.
This burst of activity comes at a crucial time. A
tracking initiative called the Global Carbon Project recently reported that greenhouse gas
emissions jumped 2.3 percent in 2013, mainly because of big increases in China
and India. This means it is becoming increasingly difficult to limit global
warming to an upper boundary of 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit above preindustrial
levels. Beyond that point, scientists say, a world already suffering from
disappearing glaciers, rising seas and persistent droughts could face even more
alarming consequences.
Avoiding such a fate is going to require a revolution in
the way the world produces and consumes energy, which clearly has to involve
national governments, no matter how much commitment there is on the streets and
in the boardrooms. The odds are long that a legally binding treaty will emerge
from Paris. Congress is unlikely to ratify one anyway. The smart money now is
on a softer agreement that brings all the big polluters on board with national
emissions caps, and there are reasons for hope that this can be done.
Mr. Obama is in
a much stronger leadership position than he was at Copenhagen, having
engineered a huge increase in automobile fuel efficiency and proposed rules
that will greatly reduce the United States’ reliance on dirty coal. The
Chinese, in part because their own air is so dirty, have been investing heavily
in alternative energy sources like wind and solar, and they are giving serious
consideration to a national cap on coal consumption. The cooperation of
these two countries could by itself create the conditions for a breakthrough
agreement. But what might really do the trick — if Climate Week is any guide —
is the emergence of a growing bottom-up movement for change.
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